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7/15/24: Dodged A Bullet 😮‍💨🤠📈

7/15/24: Dodged A Bullet 😮‍💨🤠📈

Valko
July 15, 2024

Specs’ Breakdown

1. Trump’s Polymarket odds surge after assassination attempt

Trump's election odds just hit 70%.
Yet another all-time high.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket)
12:50 AM • Jul 14, 2024

⌐◪-◪ → Trump’s odds of winning the election just hit a new all-time high of 70% on Polymarket, a 16% increase from his odds in May.

While his odds are better than ever, this begs the question — what would Polymarket have done if the assassination was successful?

Prediction markets for assassinations are strictly illegal (for obvious reasons) as they’re effectively a bounty on someone’s life.

This means in event the assassination was successful, Polymarket would have to invalidate the market — otherwise it would indirectly be an assassination market.

Anyway, I’m glad he’s safe. Trump dodged a bullet, and by proxy so did all of America.

Condolences to the two innocent bystanders who lost their lives.

2. Trump is still going to speak at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville

I have just spoken with the President’s team. He is in good spirits and is excited to see you all in Nashville and deliver a speech that is heard around the world.
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $0.65mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey)
3:46 PM • Jul 14, 2024

⌐◪-◪ → Despite nearly getting assassinated, Trump is still going to speak at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville on July 25th - 27th.

The speaker list is stacked with pro-crypto politicians like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Cynthia Lummis, Bill Hagerty, and Marsha Blackburn.

Some speculate Trump will announce independent candidate RFK Jr. as his Vice President, in a move to unite the country and rally further support from the crypto community.

While it’s possible, Polymarket disagrees — giving RFK a 1% chance. The leading choices are JD Vance (31%), Marco Rubio (11%), and Ben Carson (6%).

If you’re coming to Nashville for the conference please let me know in Specs.Chat, maybe we can meet up!

3. Ethereum ETF in final stages, approval expected this week

Welcome to spot eth ETF approval week…
I’m calling it.
Don’t know anything specific, just can’t come up w/ good reason for any further delay at this point.
Issuers ready for launch.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci)
9:01 PM • Jul 14, 2024

⌐◪-◪ → Final signoff on spot Ether ETFs is expected imminently, with listings possibly by next week. Issuers like VanEck and 21Shares have filed amended registrations, hoping for SEC approval.

Eight spot issuers are awaiting regulatory approval, with Polymarket giving a 94% chance of approval by July 26. Analysts predict billions in inflows, potentially driving significant price appreciation.

Crypto-native hedge funds are preparing to swap self-custodied ETH for ETF shares. Over a dozen funds with AUM exceeding $1 billion each have expressed interest.

How soon do you think the ETF will be approved? Let me know in Specs.Chat!

Everything Else

⛓️ Crypto & DeFi

BTC retakes $62K with Trump response optimism
Bitcoin whales accumulate most since April 2023
Rage Trade to issue token on new L1 blockchain Hyperliquid

🏦 Wallstreet & VC

BTC ETFs see highest inflow in 5 weeks
Bitfarms sets vote date for shareholders on Riot's takeover attempt
MakerDAO to invest $1B in tokenized US treasury offerings
Partior raises $60M to advance cross-border clearing and settlement
Pixelverse raises $2M to ensure growth before TGE

🏛️ Legal & Regulatory

Celsius settles with KeyFi's founder Jason Stone
SEC drops investigation of Bitcoin Stacks developer Hiro
BitConnect promoter John Bigatton convicted in Australia
Judge grants Tornado Cash dev Roman Storm's trial delay request

🌎 Rest of the World

Russia to allow crypto trading on traditional stock exchanges
German government finishes selling $2.9B BTC holding
South Korea ruling party proposes delay in crypto taxes till 2028
North Korea's Lazarus Group linked to $305M DMM breach
FORMA announces first Solana Economic Zone in Buenos Aires

🖼️ NFTs & Metaverse

Pirate Nation NFTs hit ATH 1.5 ETH
Pudgy Wizard toy release tonight on NTWRK
Original Trump NFTs hit ATH
MOG memecoin hits ATH, lists in top 100 coins
XAI partners with Peeking Duck to launch new game
POPCAT memecoin hits ATH, leads top SOL memes
Trump's election odds for president hit 70% on Polymarket
Base hits record 1M user operations last week

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