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⌐◪-◪ → The FBI just made a big mistake.

The FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s apartment, seizing his phone and other electronics. While the exact motive is unclear, speculation is that it’s part of a market manipulation probe suggesting Polymarket polls were rigged to favor Trump — which I’ve already written about at length.

Since this is an ongoing investigation, the FBI hasn’t provided justification. But if they don’t have reasonable grounds, this is a terrible look for the FBI and the current administration. It reeks of political retribution.

Polymarket’s CEO already responded on Twitter with:

• A cheeky “new phone, who dis?” tweet

• A longer, optimistic, post defending Polymarket

It’s important to remember that this is all speculation. Beyond the raid and seizure, nothing has been verified.

While I’m open to the possibility that the FBI had probable cause and that Shayne or Polymarket could be in the wrong, I highly doubt it. If there’s no legal basis here, I hope Shayne sues the absolute shit out of the FBI.

Heavyweights like Elon Musk and Brian Armstrong have already weighed in, backing Shayne and Polymarket. I have a feeling this isn’t going to end well for the FBI, but let’s see.

⌐◪-◪ → Pinch me, I must be dreaming.

Donald Trump is allegedly considering eliminating capital gains taxes on crypto issued by U.S. companies. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard it — rumors started circulating in late October, which we covered in the 10/31 issue of Specs.

If this isn’t just a rumor, and Trump makes it happen, Americans holding U.S. crypto assets like $ADA, $ALGO, $XRP, and $HBAR would face 0% capital gains — crazy. This has two immediate effects:

• Short term: Holders of U.S. crypto might exit their positions to take advantage of tax-free gains.

• Long term: U.S. investors would likely overallocate to U.S. cryptos, maximizing gains under a pro-crypto Trump administration.

One of these creates sell-side pressure, while the other creates buy-side pressure. Fundamentally though, this is mega-bullish for U.S. crypto companies. It makes U.S.-issued crypto the logical choice for American investors and would help the U.S. further establish itself as the crypto capital of the world.

While exciting, the reality is that the executive branch doesn’t have the authority to create tax law — it would still need to pass through Congress.

But the simple fact remains: the future of crypto in America has never looked brighter, and the market agrees.

⌐◪-◪ → Is the Fed changing its tune on crypto?

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari just said he’d keep an “open mind” toward crypto in an interview with CoinDesk. This is a big shift, as Neel has been one of crypto’s loudest critics, calling it worthless, fraudulent, and nonsense for years.

Despite his promise to stay open-minded, Kashkari still criticized crypto during the interview, questioning its purpose and utility beyond speculation. This change, of course, comes right after Trump won the election — our first pro-crypto president, with a pro-crypto Republican party now controlling all three branches of government.

This adds new perspective to the possibility of Sen. Lummis’ Bitcoin Act, which would require the U.S. government to purchase 1M Bitcoin (5% of the supply), potentially setting off a global Bitcoin arms race.

It’s refreshing to see longstanding crypto critics start to open their eyes to the asset. It only took Wall Street ETFs, pension fund adoption, new all-time highs, and a Pro-Bitcoin president — but hey, better late than never. I just hope he becomes a genuine believer and isn’t just covering his ass (from getting fired).

I’ll leave you with this → ∞/21M

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